Jan. 27, 2025 - Bitcoin Checklist
I haven’t sold any Bitcoin for over 4 years, but I also don’t intend to watch Bitcoin drop by 70% again. So I built a checklist to help me feel confident in holding my Bitcoin during the bull market and also feeling confident to get out of the market when I feel like the bull market is over.
Sentiment: Short term sentiment is great considering the price is above $100k and everyone is concerned this is the cycle top. But with TRUMP and MELANIA coin launched 2 weeks ago, we are definitely getting into the late stages of this cycle.
200 Day Moving Average is around $75k. This makes the BTC price / 200 day moving average = 1.33 (Bitcoin Mayer Multiple) If this metric gets above 1.75, this signal will turn red
Nasdaq chart structure is still bullish. Trend line in tact
S&P chart structure is still bullish. Trend line in tact
Elliot Wave Theory - We are in the 5th wave of the 5th wave. We’re definitely getting closer to the end. But we should still see one more impulse move up. At that point, the signal will turn red
Bitcoin Chart - the Bitcoin chart itself is yellow because it’s not trending. Instead, it’s ranging between $109k and 90k. Some people are concerned that it’s topping. The chart isn’t giving us Green nor Red signals.
Interest Rates: I follow the 2 YR, 10YR, and 30YR interest rates, and from all I can see, it looks like interest rates have topped. Each of these charts are showing lower highs. I think the drama around interest rates decoupling from the Feds Fund rate is over done. It’s time for the interest rates to start coming down, which will give the markets a tail wind.
Dots System - Dots are still green on the 3-day and the weekly. If you want to learn more about the Dot System, you can check it out HERE.
RSI - RSI gives us a green signal when the weekly RSI for Bitcoin is above 70. Right now it’s just below. This is something to watch closely at the end of each week.
Ichimoku Cloud - this indicator doesn’t help with identifying the top / bottom, but it does help us identify when the price is out of balance.
Gold vs BTC Chart: The gold chart is trending up, and so as long as the GOLD/BTC chart is flat to down, that bodes well for Bitcoin. Right now, it’s looking great.
S&P/BTC Chart: This is continuing to trend down. This is good for Bitcoin
Nasdaq/BTC Chart: This is continuing to trend down. This is good for Bitcoin
MSTR chart: It continues to make lower highs. In 2021, MSTR topped 2 months before Bitcoin. This time around, MSTR topped in late November, which means, we are already 2 months ahead. This to me is a red flag.
Yield Curve: When the yield curve inverts, everyone freaks out about it being a signal for an upcoming recession. But the recession doesn’t hit until after the yield curve UN-INVERTS, which it recently did. This makes me think we see a recession in the next 6-9 months, which means we could be close to the top in Bitcoin in the next 3-6 months.
Parabolic Advance Structure: if you look at the BTC chart when it goes parabolic, i.e. 2017, 2019, 2021…when it breaks the trend line, it’s time to get out.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) - Bitcoin tops when this chart is bottoming out. Instead, this charts looks to be topping out which bodes well for another run up for Bitcoin and alt coins as well.
DXY Chart - DXY is the US Dollar index. The stock market, gold, and Bitcoin are inversely correlated to DXY. DXY looks to be topping out (similar to interest rates) which should also be a tail wind for Bitcoin.
Here’s a video of me explaining in more detail: