Bitcoin Checklist - Feb. 10, 2025
I’m only going to touch on the things that are pertinent or have changed from previous weeks checklist. You can go back to previous lists here.
Sentiment - I’m upgrading sentiment to green because sentiment is so bad right now. This might sound like an oxymoron, but Sentiment rating is green when there’s a lot of fear in the markets. And thanks to Trump’s tariff threats, sentiment is pretty grim. I saw a tweet this week saying he’s never seen a bull market with such horrible sentiment. He hinted that this was a good thing.
The S&P Chart has basically gone nowhere for nearly 10 weeks. This is not bearish. But people are growing impatient and you’d think the market was down 5-10% from all-time highs. Instead, it’s just basing for what could be another leg higher soon.
The Bitcoin chart looked pretty scary last week after the tariff threats, but the structure remains bullish as long as we close each week above $91k. Again, we are just ranging (going sideways), which is very boring, but no reason to sell. The price has been going sideways for about 8 weeks. I don’t expect this to continue for more than 2 more weeks at the most.
Interest rate charts look like they’ve definitely topped. They won’t move down in a straight line, but they are at least moving in the right direction.
The DOT System I subscribe to is starting to weaken. This is something I am keeping a close eye on, on the 3-day candlestick time frame. The longer time frames are still bullish. Nothing too concerning yet.
My biggest red flag right now is the Gold/Bitcoin chart. The chart broke above a level of resistance that it’s been below for 8+ weeks. Just like any chart, this doesn’t mean this chart is going to go up in a straight line from here, but another indicator to keep a close watch on.
Last week when the crypto markets were crashing, the Bitcoin Dominance chart shot up significantly, and then retraced back down forming a pretty long wick on the weekly candlestick chart. This looks like to be forming a top. This is a good sign. Bitcoin can still go up, but the altcoins will outperform. The trend for this chart is still up, so it may be a bit premature to say that is has topped, but it’s at least a start.
One thing to add, last week the crypto markets saw $2+ billion in liquidations from the brief market crash. This was more than what happened during the Covid crash when Bitcoin crashed from $9k to less than $4k. It was scary times back then.
Now Bitcoin is ranging between $92k and $109k. The sentiment on Crypto Twitter is bleak. Everyone seems to be giving up on any kind of alt season. Yes, there is a chance that Trump rocks the markets with tariffs, but his funds keep buying up crypto, including Ethereum.
The signs are still predominantly bullish. And if there is any significant pull back, it’s only temporary.
My goal is to sell before Bitcoin crashes by 40+%. And this only happens after Bitcoin reaches at least 2x the 200 day moving average. We aren’t there yet, and so any pullback is not going to be the big one that every one (including me) is afraid of.